How Donald Trump Secured a Gaza Breakthrough That Eluded Biden
Initially, the Israeli air strike on the Hamas militant delegation in Qatar seemed like yet another escalation that pushed the prospect of peace out of reach.
This strike on September 9 breached the sovereignty of an American ally and threatened widening the hostilities into a broader regional conflict.
Negotiations appeared to be in ruins.
However, it turned out to be a key moment that culminated in a agreement, announced by President Donald Trump, to release all captives still held.
This is a objective that he, and President Joe Biden before him, had sought for almost 24 months.
It is just the first step towards a lasting resolution, and the specifics of Hamas disarmament, administering Gaza and full Israeli withdrawal are still to be worked out.
Yet if this deal stands, it could be Trump's defining accomplishment of his return to office - one that escaped Joe Biden and his diplomatic team.
Trump's unique style and crucial relationships with Israel and the Arab world appear to have played a role in this success.
But, as with many foreign policy wins, there were also elements at play beyond the influence of both leaders.
Strong Ties That Eluded Biden
Publicly, Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are consistently friendly.
Trump likes to say that the nation has no greater ally, and the Israeli leader has called Trump as Israel's "greatest ever ally in the White House". And these warm words have been matched by deeds.
Throughout his first presidential term, the president moved the American diplomatic mission in Israel from its former location to the contested capital and discarded a traditional American stance that Israeli settlements in the Palestinian West Bank are illegal, the view under international law.
After the Israeli military began its bombing campaign against Iran in June, the US leader ordered US bombers to strike the nation's atomic sites with its largest non-nuclear weapons.
Those public demonstrations of backing may have allowed Trump the leeway to apply more influence on Israel in private. As per sources, Trump's envoy, his representative, browbeat Netanyahu in the latter part of the year into accepting a halt in fighting in exchange for the release of a number of captives.
When Israeli forces attacked against Syrian forces in July, even bombing a Christian church, Trump pressured his counterpart to alter tactics.
Trump displayed a level of will and pressure on an Israeli prime minister that is virtually unprecedented, according to an analyst of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "It's unheard of of an US leader literally telling an Israeli prime minister that you're going to have to comply or else."
Joe Biden's connection with the Israeli administration was always more tenuous.
His administration's "bear hug strategy" held that the United States had to support the nation publicly in order to enable it to moderate the nation's military actions in private.
Beneath this was the president's nearly half-century of backing for Israel, as well as deep disagreements within his Democratic coalition over the Gaza War. Each move the leader took endangered dividing his own domestic support, while Trump's solid Republican base gave him more room to manoeuvre.
Ultimately, internal considerations or individual ties may have had little impact than the simple fact that, during Biden's presidency, the Israeli government was not ready to make peace.
Several months into his new administration, with Iran weakened, Hezbollah to its northern border greatly diminished and Gaza in ruins, every one of its key military goals had been accomplished.
Business History Helped Gain Support from Arab States
An Israeli strike in Doha, which killed a local national but not the intended targets, led the president to deliver an ultimatum to the prime minister. The war had to stop.
The US leader had given Israel a relatively free hand in the territory. He lent American military might to Israeli operations in Iran. However an strike on Qatar soil was a different matter completely, pushing him closer to the Arab position on how best to end the war.
Several administration figures have told the press that this was a decisive moment which motivated the leader to apply full force to finalize an agreement.
The leader's close ties with the Arab monarchies are widely known. Trump has commercial interests with Qatar and the UAE. He began both his presidential terms with state visits to Saudi Arabia. Recently, Trump also stopped in Qatar and the UAE capital.
The president's Abraham Accords, which established ties between the Jewish state and several Muslim states, such as the UAE, was the biggest diplomatic achievement of his initial presidency.
His visits devoted in the capitals of the Gulf region earlier this year contributed to change his thinking, says an expert of the a policy institute. Trump did not travel to Israel on this regional tour but visited the UAE, the kingdom and Qatar where the leader heard repeated calls to bring an end to the conflict.
Less than a month after that Israeli strike on Doha, the president was present close as Netanyahu personally phoned Qatar to express regret. Subsequently, the prime minister signed off on Trump's comprehensive proposal for the territory - one that also had the support of influential Arab states in the region.
If the president's relationship with his counterpart gave him the ability to pressure the government to strike a deal, his past with Arab rulers may have ensured their support, and assisted them persuade the group to agree to the arrangement.
"A key factor that evidently occurred was that President Trump gained influence with the Israeli government, and indirectly with Hamas," notes Jon Alterman of the a research center.
"This was crucial. His ability to achieve this on his timing, and avoid yielding to the demands of the combatants has been a problem that lot of previous presidents have struggled with, and Trump appears to handle relatively successfully."
The fact that the president is much more popular in the nation than Netanyahu himself was an advantage that Trump used to his benefit, he adds.
Currently the Israeli government has agreed to releasing over a thousand detainees imprisoned in its jails and has agreed to a partial withdrawal from the strip.
Hamas will free all the captives still held, both alive and deceased, captured during the initial October 7 assault, which caused the loss of over 1,200 Israeli citizens.
An end to the conflict, which has led to the devastation of Gaza and the fatalities of more than 67,000 {Palestinians|Pal