🔗 Share this article

Each time the wind gusts northwest from Belarus, Lithuania prepares for problems.

That is when large aerial objects are sent across the border, with crates of illicit tobacco dangling beneath.

Over the recent period, this smuggling operation has compelled Lithuania's Vilnius Airport into closure 15 times, delaying thousands of travellers.

On a single instance, the national skies was closed completely for a lengthy 11 hours.

However, the officials are adamant they are dealing with something considerably more sinister than simple smugglers.

They contend the balloons have been utilized as instruments of provocation in an act of hybrid warfare by Belarus, Russia's closest ally.

Emergency Response

The Lithuanian administration has declared an emergency situation.

While balloons have been used by smugglers previously, their numbers suddenly surged this October.

"Naturally it began as criminal enterprise, but we've seen more than once how Belarus exploits organised crime to impact neighbouring countries," a government minister stated.

The official suggested the balloons are sent from locations that help them best disrupt Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If you want to conduct a contraband run, you'd do it in the forests or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister reasoned.

Instead, there is a view that the balloons represent a form of political blackmail on Europe's eastern edge.

"They see this as leverage: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really touching the realm of national security."

Nightly Patrols

Now, each evening, security forces deploy in the border zone.

The balloons are most frequent after dark.

Patrols establish temporary roadblocks on isolated lanes, checking drivers' documents and examining vehicles looking for anyone involved to the smuggling networks.

The balloons travel too high to make shooting them down a safe or economic option.

Consequently, the government has announced a substantial reward to any company that can devise how to intercept them.

For now, teams use advanced tracking systems to monitor the balloons and attempt to catch smugglers at the landing sites.

Soon, new legal penalties for aviation disruption should also serve as a preventive measure.

Strategic Motives

The frontier line is now marked by a high security barrier, with security wire and concrete blocks.

This extra security is a clear sign of how Lithuania now considers its neighbour as adversarial.

Not far away, the leader of Belarus has rejected all talk of hybrid warfare as "fabricated".

He recently attributed the activity to "bandit" smugglers, saying they were simply acting for financial gain and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania does not buy that, partly due to previous incidents.

In 2021, migrants were assisted to cross into Lithuania and Poland in large numbers, creating a manufactured emergency.

"The current pattern involves a series of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, aimed directly at the airport," explained a security official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it immediately. But they don't. That implies it benefits them."

The belief is that Belarus is attempting to pressure its way into lifting sanctions.

"They want to draw diplomatic focus and force us to change our policies towards Belarus," is how one minister views the sudden influx of balloons.

The EU has not recognized the Belarusian leader as president following disputed elections in 2020 and a subsequent repression.

Sanctions were imposed then and strengthened later when Belarus aided Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the diplomatic ostracism of the regime and secondly, of course, the sanctions," the minister argued.

Consequences for Travel

Currently, travellers and airlines must adjust.

"This is an unprecedented situation for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already relocated its charter flights, and another has cut its evening service.

Revenue losses for all impacted companies are projected to reach €2m by year's end.

"There are direct financial costs, but the even higher risk is if passengers start to lose trust in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers consult a new webpage for wind forecasts and balloon probability before booking flights.

"It's stressful, it makes me a anxious. I'd just like to get home as planned," one passenger said.

"We believe this is a form of aggression on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really amusing to fly those balloons and then laugh at us."

Her words suggest that another aim of such covert tactics – undermining confidence – is also having an effect, and perhaps more difficult to counter.

"They're basically testing the limits of Nato: looking at how we protect against these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even deal with simple balloons. We're not even prepared for the basic stuff."