Starmer's Backers Launch 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Return
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.
Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process
A number of figures on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avert any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused anger in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the party leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of insiders also shared fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.
